Multidimensional Contest: An Uncertain Battle in Moulvibazar-4

Sangram Datta: Moulvibazar-4 is one of the 300 constituencies of Bangladesh’s National Parliament, officially listed as Constituency No. 238. It is located in Moulvibazar district. Since 6 August 2024—when the President dissolved Parliament following the non-cooperation movement—this seat has remained vacant.

The constituency was created in 1984 from the former Sylhet-15 seat, after the greater Sylhet district was divided into four new districts (Sylhet, Moulvibazar, Sunamganj and Habiganj).

Before the 2008 general election, the Election Commission redrew constituency boundaries in line with population growth reflected in the 2001 census. Later, before the 2018 election, four unions from Kamalganj upazila (Adampur, Alinagar, Islampur, and Sreemangal’s Shamshernagar) were added, further expanding the constituency.

Moulvibazar-4 (No. 238) now comprises Kamalganj and Sreemangal upazilas. Covering about 851 square kilometers, the seat includes 18 unions and 2 municipalities.

According to information of the local election offices, as of August 30, the constituency has 505,820 registered voters—240,676 men, 241,904 women, and 1 voter of the third gender. Another 23,239 voters have been newly added to the rolls. Officials noted that registration is still ongoing, meaning the final count may rise further.

Influence of Tea Workers and Minority Communities:

Tea laborers and minority communities have long played a decisive role in shaping election outcomes. As a result, potential candidates are making frequent appearances at social and religious events to strengthen ties with these key groups.

Election results in both upazilas have consistently hinged on the votes of tea laborers and the Hindu community. Heavyweight BNP leaders and aspirants from the newly formed NCP are actively engaging with these groups, attending their community events and rituals.

In essence, whichever candidate can best secure the confidence of tea workers and minoritiy Hindu community—by ensuring communal harmony, promoting local development and maintaining close grassroots connections will hold the key to victory.

Awami League Stronghold, but with Divided Votes:

Since independence, except for a few breaks totaling about three and a half years, Awami League has largely dominated this seat. The party’s “boat” symbol has won here repeatedly.

However, the entry of influential Jatiya Party leader Md. Ahad Miah in 1991 disrupted Awami League’s stronghold, particularly in the tea garden areas. In subsequent elections, he significantly boosted the vote share in these pockets. Similarly, in 2001, independent candidate Alhaj Mujibur Rahman Chowdhury capitalized on tea garden votes, challenging the Awami League’s monopoly and mirroring Ahad Miah’s success. Both leaders spent years cultivating ties with tea workers.

Electoral History: Who Won When?

In 1973, Awami League candidate Md. Altafur Rahman Chowdhury won with the “boat.” Independent Dr. Md. Abdul Ali, (An Awami League founding organizer) lost narrowly after failing to secure the party ticket. His main rival was NAP’s Prof. Syed Mujibur Rahman.

In 1979, Popular local leader Md. Elias won for Awami League. His main challenger was Awami League (Mizan group)’s Satyendra Kumar Roy who was known as S K Roy, contesting with the “stool” symbol.

In 1986, Md. Elias again won for Awami League, defeating Jatiya Party’s revolutionary leader Mofiz Ali (plough symbol). Then BNP boycotted the election.

In 1988, Md. Ahad Miah of Jatiya Party won (plough) and Awami League, BNP, and Jamaat boycotted.

In 1991, Awami League’s Abdus Shahid (75,321 votes) defeated Ahad Miah of Jatiya Party (60,215 votes).

In Feb 1996, BNP’s Shafiqul Rahman Chowdhury (paddy sheaf) won. Awami League and others boycotted.

In Jun 1996, Abdus Shahid again won for Awami League (91,811 votes), defeating Ahad Miah (59,825).

In 2001, Abdus Shahid (Awami League, 96,329 votes) beat independent Mujibur Rahman Chowdhury (70,364). BNP’s Mohsin Mia Madhu came third (34,726).

In 2008, Abdus Shahid (131,740) won again for Awami League, beating BNP’s Mujibur Rahman Chowdhury (79,599).

In 2014, With BNP boycotting, Shahid was elected unopposed.

In 2018, Shahid (216,613) won for Awami League. BNP’s Mujibur Rahman Chowdhury (93,295) was his closest rival. The election was criticized at home and abroad for alleged ballot-stuffing.

In 2024, With BNP again boycotting, Shahid won easily for Awami League.

Political Shifts After August 2024:

Following the political upheaval of 5 August 2024, BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the newly formed NCP have become increasingly active in the constituency. Leaders are staging rallies, meetings, and grassroots campaigns.

Current Position of the Main Parties:

Awami League:

The party is weakened. Longtime MP and former Agriculture Minister Abdus Shahid is in prison. Former upazila chairman Bhanu Lal Roy and many senior leaders have been arrested; others are in hiding. Workers and supporters are demoralized and organizational activity is largely paralyzed.

BNP:

Since 2008, BNP has been Awami League’s main challenger. Two hopefuls stand out.

Alhaj Mujibur Rahman Chowdhury who Ran as an independent in 2001 and as BNP candidate in 2008 and 2018. Arrested around 20 times since 2006, serving over 2 years in total. He retains strong acceptance among tea workers and minorities.

Mohsin Mia Madhu – Former mayor and industrialist. Began politics as a commissioner in 1984 and was later elected mayor of Sreemangal four times in 1993, 1998, 2011 and 2021 respectively. He has long maintained close ties with all communities.

Both are actively campaigning, but BNP has yet to announce its official candidate.

Jamaat-e-Islami:

This party Has a functional base. Nominated Advocate Abdur Rob, a prominent Sylhet city leader, who is engaging with tea workers and minorities and others.

NCP (National Citizens’ Party):

New but energized. Central leader Pritom Das, a young activist with a record of arrests during movements, is regularly reaching out to tea workers, minorities, and other marginalized groups.

Jatiya Party:

Once Awami League’s chief rival here, the party has steadily declined since 2001. Internal splits pushed most leaders toward BNP or Awami League. Activity remains low, though party insiders suggest efforts may revive soon.

Hefazat-e-Islam and Gono Odhikar Parishad:

Names have surfaced—Nure Alam Hamidi (Hefazat) and Harunur Rashid (Gono Odhikar)—but organizational activity is still limited.

Left Parties: Past and Present

Before and after independence, leftist parties like NAP were powerful forces in this constituency, especially in 1970 and 1973. However, political repression from 1975 onward, coupled with structural and financial weaknesses, gradually eroded their influence.

Today, while NAP, CPB, JSD, Workers Party, and Gonoforum maintain committees, their presence is muted. Although their legacy remains respected among some groups, leftist parties no longer command significant electoral weight in this increasingly money- and influence-driven political climate.

Key Electoral Issues:

Gaining the trust of tea laborers and minorities – Ensuring welfare and protecting rights.

Communal harmony and security – Preserving peace, social cohesion, and law and order.

Development of tea-producing areas – Infrastructure, education, healthcare, and living standards.

Political violence and law-and-order concerns – Voter demand for a free and peaceful election.

Doubts About the Election;

Despite political change in 2024, law and order remain fragile. Killings, mob justice, extortion, and factional violence continue. Experts and the public alike are uncertain whether elections scheduled for February can actually take place.

Conclusion:

The electoral dynamics of Sreemangal–Kamalganj revolve primarily around tea laborers and minority voters. History shows that although Awami League has repeatedly won and BNP, Jatiya Party, independents and others have always posed significant challenges.

Today, Awami League is weakened by arrests and inactivity, while BNP and new entrants have energized the field. Though traditionally an Awami League stronghold, Moulvibazar-4 is heading toward one of the most competitive, multi-party and unpredictable contests in its history—if elections are indeed held.